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The word "realtor" describes only one aspect of working in the real estate industry. Professionals who own their companies must have a firm grasp on every element that impacts operations - whether the commodity is land, housing or commercial property. The sections that follow span a broad spectrum of subjects key to growing a healthy business.
By Peter J. Reilly
The National Apartment Association and the National Multifamily Housing Council are concerned that looming tax reform might have a bad impact on the rental housing industry. So they have initiated a grassroots program to raise the alarm. The flagship of the program is a website for the initiative - Protect The Lease. Launching with a website and press releases from two 501(c)(6) trade associations that each gross over $20 million seems a little more astroturf than grassroots, but maybe that is just me. They were very kind to let me have a sneak peek at the website, so maybe I should be a little nicer.
The website tells us that multifamily housing is a very big industry that a lot of people work in. And it provides apartments, which is where a lot of people, you know, live. The way they correlate all this with tax reform is a little indirect. Frankly, I think the logic is a bit disingenuous in most cases, but here is how it works. There are six impacts that Protect The Lease is concerned with and you need to drill down through each impact to find the tax principle that is, in their view, related.
The impacts are enhancing livelihoods and careers, creating and securing jobs, ensuring housing affordability, advancing neighborhoods and communities, meeting future housing demand and promoting investment in the industry. Just for fun I am going to leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine how the impacts correlate with the specific proposals. In my mind, with one exception, they don't, but I'll give you that one to get you started.
The specific tax issues that are of concern are the treatment of flow-throughs, like-kind exchanges, depreciation, carried interest, the low-income housing tax credit and deductibility of business interest.
Low Income Housing Tax Credit
We'll start with the low-income housing tax credit which is the one I'm giving you. Protect the Lease connects the low-income housing credit to "ensuring housing affordability". I wanted to do a little more than just looking at Forms 990 to assess how credible NAA and NMHC were. What I did was ask Mike Novogradac. Mike built a substantial national CPA firm (over twenty offices- ranked about 30 nationally) around the Low Income Housing Tax Credit. Mike assured me that the sponsors of Protect the Lease are substantial and credible.
And concern about the LIHTC is well grounded. Even the threat of tax reform has had an impact on the LIHTC. The credit is rationed by state population and assigned to developments by state housing agencies. Developers, in effect, sell the credit, which is spread over ten years, mostly to corporations. Concerns about tax reform, such as lower rates, have already affected the appetite of corporations for the credit pushing down the development dollars that credit allocations yield.
Flow-Through Entites
For a variety of reason the real estate industry favors flow-through entities and there is a concern that the desire for a lower corporate rate will somehow harm them.
“Flow-through entities should not be taxed to make up for the lost revenue from a reduced corporate tax rate, and a corporate tax rate cut should not be financed by denying flow-through entities taxpayer credits and deductions.”
This is actually a more moderate position than one advanced by the President and others to lower the rate that flow through income is taxed at.
Business Interest Deduction And Depreciation
Protect The Lease addresses these separately, but I have a reason for putting them together:
“Tax reform should recognize the key role that debt financing plays in building and strengthening American neighborhoods and communities.
“Tax reform should continue to ensure that depreciation tax rules match the economic life of assets by accounting for the natural wear and tear of buildings and technological obsolescence.”
One of the proposals bruited about by several of the campaigns is immediate expensing of capital expenditures and the denial of business interest deductions. For some reason, this proposal is beloved by economists. When I did a little thought experiment on it in a post about the Jeb Bush campaign , the idea struck me as a nightmare for the way a lot of housing deals are structured. With a deal that is leveraged under current law there will be a difference between cash flow and taxable income from year to year as principal payments do not perfectly match depreciation deductions. Over the whole life of the project, though, cash flow and taxable income match. In the expensing model, there is a huge up front deduction, but over the long haul, taxable income ends up greater than cash flow.
Like-kind Exchange
I'm actually pretty skeptical that scuttling like-kind exchanges is a threat to housing.
“Like-kind exchanges are more than an investment tool: They enable individuals, families and investors to participate in the apartment housing industry in an efficient manner. By increasing the frequency of property transactions, the like-kind exchange rules enable continued investment in the apartment sector that supports additional reinvestment and construction activity in the industry.”
Pretty much all real estate is considered like-kind to all other real estate. The like-kind exchange rules allow owners of multi-family housing to get out of the housing business and into commercial real estate without recognizing gain. I believe the like-kind exchange rules have created a bubble in property leased to chain drugstores such as Walgreens and CVS. New construction can be financed with like-kind exchange money, but it is pretty complicated, since you have to have the stars align properly in order for it to work. Clearly repeal of like-kind exchange would hurt owners of highly appreciated real estate - except for the ones who are thereby dissuaded from exchanging into overpriced drugstores - but Protect the Lease does not make much of a case that it would actually affect housing supply.
Carried Interest
“Eliminating carried interest would mean a higher tax rate for real estate investment at a time when demand for apartments continues to grow and is outpacing the current rate of new apartment housing construction.
“Americans from every walk of life will be directly impacted if tax laws change. It will be exponentially more difficult for the industry to develop enough apartment housing to meet increasing demand. Less money for expansion and growth will result in fewer apartment communities, reduced housing stock, and fewer jobs.”
The threat to carried interest in real estate is collateral damage from the resentment toward hedge fund managers during the Occupy Wall Street days. Carried interest is not some sort of subtle loophole, but rather the result of fundamental principles of partnership taxation. Eliminating carried interest would add significant complexity to the code. The idea is that a general partner shares in the capital gains of a partnership in an amount that is disproportionate to the amount invested. Tax reform advocates want that income converted to ordinary.
I don't think converting carried interest income to ordinary is a very good idea. On the other hand, I'm skeptical that it would have much effect on the housing industry. What is going to happen? Because they have to pay income taxes like regular people do on big bonuses, real estate developers are going to move into other fields. I don't think so. There would, however, be motivation to do highly leveraged deals rather than bringing in equity, which might create instability.
Is It As Bad As The Last Time?
When the Tax Reform of 1986 went into effect, Donald Trump was a real estate maven, not our President. He was very concerned about the effect that the act would have on real estate as he related in Art of The Deal:
“Jack Mitnik, my accountant, calls to discuss the tax implications of a deal we’re doing. I ask him how bad he thinks the new federal tax law is going to be for real estate, since it eliminates a lot of current real estate write-offs. To my surprise, Mitnik tells me he thinks the law is an overall plus for me, since much of my cash flow comes from casinos and condominiums and the top tax rate on earned income is being dropped from 50 to 32 percent. However, I still believe the law will be a disaster for the country, since it eliminates the incentives to invest and build—particularly in secondary locations, where no building will occur unless there are incentives.”
You can find evidence that developer Donald Trump was right about the act creating a shock to the real estate industry. For example here is something from 1991 titled - Destroying Real Estate Through the Tax Code by Roy Cordato. And here is The Effect of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and Overbuilt Markets on Commercial Office Property Markets by Stanley Smith, Larry Woodward and Craig Schulman.
This is the first empirical study to test the impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on office property values and the impact of regional economic conditions. The results for the period 1983 to1988 indicate that it had a significant negative effect on values in all four regions and the highest loss was in the South. The significantly higher losses in the South and the West are supportive of the argument that the effect of tax or regulatory changes on real estate will vary across regions based on vacancy rates and economic growth.
When it comes to the supply of affordable housing though, the Low Income Housing Tax Credit created a new source of capital as it obliterated another source. Now public companies were investing in housing deals instead of groups of dentists. Almost all improved rental real estate had an implicit tax shelter component in its value, that the act squeezed out creating real hardship for owners and the financial institutions that had financed them.
Current proposals do not represent the same threat to supply with the very big exception of the Low Income Housing Tax Credit. During the last thirty years we have gotten used to capital flowing into affordable housing via tax subsidy. If that is turned off, it will have to affect affordability somehow, but it will probably not be immediate.
Why We Can't Have Nice Things Like Tax Reform
Protect the Lease is a reaction that illustrates the difficulty of tax reform. Over the years, Congress has chosen to use the Tax Code as, in the words of Joe Kristan, the Swiss Army Knife of social policy. Thus tax policies develop strong constituencies. Protect the Lease is an effort to convince people that others should care about the industry's tax benefits. We'll see how it goes.
Source: Forbes, May 22, 2017
(https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterjreilly/2017/05/22/housing-industry-panicing-about-tax-reform)
By Judy Dutton
Recent college graduates hoping to buy a home have one more reason to toss their caps in the air these days: Programs offering home grants to new grads are popping up across the country, offering thousands of dollars in assistance that could put homeownership within reach. Talk about a nice graduation gift!
In New York, for instance, Gov. Andrew Cuomo recently announced a $5 million pilot program, "Graduate to Homeownership," providing assistance to first-time buyers who've graduated from an accredited college or university with an associate's, bachelor's, master's, or doctorate degree within the past two years. That aid can take the form of low-interest-rate mortgages, or up to $15,000 in down payment assistance.
The catch? You'll have to live upstate—in Jamestown, Geneva, Elmira, Oswego, Oneonta, Plattsburgh, Glens Falls, or Middletown—eight areas that many just-sprung college students tend to flee as soon as they have their diploma in hand.
“Upstate colleges and universities have world-class programs that produce highly skilled graduates—who then leave for opportunities elsewhere,” Cuomo admitted in a statement. “This program will incentivize recent graduates to put down roots."
The trade-off for college grads
New York is not the only state offering this type of assistance to college grads, many of whom are saddled with significant student loan debt. According to analysis by Credible.com, nearly half of states offer some form of housing assistance to student loan borrowers, with a handful focusing on recent grads.
For instance, Rhode Island's Ocean State Grad Grant program offers up to $7,000 in down payment assistance to those who've earned a degree in the past three years. Ohio's Grants for Grads program offers down payment assistance or reduced-rate mortgages to those who have graduated in the past four years.
Still, what's noteworthy about programs like New York's is that you can't just buy a home anywhere. Rather, you have to plunk yourself down in semi-ghost towns. That's hardly ideal for someone who's trying to kick-start a career.
So as tempting as this home-buying "help" might appear at first glance, you have to wonder: Is it enough to offset what these students give up? Some experts say it's a risky bet.
"The New York program aims to retain highly educated people in economically depressed regions and revitalizing struggling downtowns in those regions," says David Reiss, research director for the Center for Urban Business Entrepreneurship at Brooklyn Law School. "It can certainly help people who are dealing with high student debt burdens. But programs like this have to deal with a fundamental issue: Do these communities have enough jobs for recent college graduates? Time will tell."
Find a job first, then a home
Experts say students should think carefully before they pounce on this "gift" and make sure they can be happy in one of the designated locations—and gainfully employed.
"No question, they should have a job lined up first [before buying a house]," says Reiss. After all, "a good deal on a house or a mortgage is not a good deal if we don’t have a job to go along with it."
Another rule of thumb: While you certainly don't have to stay there forever, experts generally say it's smart to plan to stay in a home for at least five years before moving—that's long enough to recoup the expenses of a home purchase (such as those hefty closing costs).
Still, the existence of these programs is a reminder that recent college grads shouldn't merely throw up their hands and assume homeownership is out of reach. Wherever you live, make sure to explore your options, both in terms of government funding or private programs from lenders.
"In Atlanta, where I live, for college graduates with a job, many lenders are waiving the usual two-year requirement of employment," points out Bruce Ailion, a Realtor® and attorney with Re/Max Town and Country.
"The same lenders have special lending programs for graduates with advanced professional degrees. If you go into education, for instance, some lenders have special loan programs that make it easier for educators to obtain a loan. All in all, buyers should research online, then sit down with a knowledgeable lender and Realtor to find the best option."
Source: Realtor.com, May 5, 2017
(http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/home-grants-for-college-grads/)
By Joe Sesso
Stop spending your days weaving your way back and forth across town for showings, listing appointments, and open houses. Instead, shift your focus and marketing efforts to a geographic farm from which you can solicit the bulk of your business and make meeting your next client as simple as hopping over a few streets. This long-term lead generation strategy makes it easy to cut down on commute time and travel costs while freeing up time for other lead-generating and lead-converting activities.
Step 1: Choose a Location
Turnover rate, amenities, and your familiarity with an area can have a powerful impact on the success of your geographic farm. Take each of these factors into account when deciding where you want to build your farm.
Also keep in mind that while you could pick your neighborhood or the one packed with million dollar homes for your farm, if those neighborhoods have low turnover rates, you may not get the consistent, dependable business your company needs to grow. Make sure whichever area you choose has an annual turnover rate of at least 6 percent.
Another factor to consider is whether you can get to and from your farm quickly. After all, why drive 45 minutes to meet a client when there are plenty of people buying and selling homes just minutes from your home or office? So, if your neighborhood does have a good turnover rate, it may be a great place to consider farming. With geographic farming, you can work in the area of your choosing and avoid the tedious back-and-forth driving that many agents endure each day.
Choosing a farm in an area you’re already familiar with will give you an immediate boost in credibility. The 2016 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers found that 80 percent of buyers consider knowledge of the local area a “very important” quality for an agent to have. An agent who can impress a buyer with their knowledge of the local schools, parks, events, businesses, traffic, etc. will be a more attractive listing option.
Once you find an easy-to-access area with a great turnover rate in an area you’re familiar with, check the recent sales to ensure no one else is farming the area. Look for any agent with a large percentage of recent home sales in your chosen area. If there is such an agent, it doesn’t mean you can’t farm there, but it does mean that a greater investment of time and money may be required to win control of the area. Consider whether your area is worth the fight or if you would get better results farming a different area.
Step 2: Identify Your Audience
Every community is home to pocket niches. Identifying them will help you develop your marketing messages. For example, if you work extensively with local artists, highlighting businesses that showcase local art might be a good way to appeal to the artists in your community. If your farm is home to a lot of newlywed couples looking to grow their families, a focus on the great schools and community parks could make more sense.
Pocket niches you find may include:
Many of your niches can only be identified by pounding the pavement and getting to know your community. However, some of it can be garnered through county records, Census data, neighborhood associations, and local social networking groups. If these options don’t appeal to you, or you need to supplement them, another way to find your niches is to create a neighborhood survey identifying them.
Step 3: Get Busy
Partnerships
An essential part of geographic farming is creating strategic partnerships with local businesses to help you build a reputation as the neighborhood expert. Do some research to find out which plumbers, electricians, painters, etc. have the best reputation in your area so you know who to recommend to your clients.
Coordinate with the businesses you’ve identified to get coupons or special discounts for people you refer to them. Also consider compiling a directory of recommended businesses in your area and remember to include your branding and contact information at the bottom of each page. Once ready, ask local businesses to let you leave a stack for their customers and share your directory via social media and on your website.
Connect With Your Community
Making connections door-to-door is an important part of geographic farming. Try to set aside time each month specifically for door-knocking and incorporate it into your other farming activities. For example, before an open house, knock on nearby homes and invite the residents to attend.
If your farm has a neighborhood association, see if you can capitalize on any mailings they send out; if the neighborhood already mails a monthly newsletter, offer to be a guest writer for them. If there isn’t a neighborhood newsletter, consider creating and circulating your own newsletter filled with relevant local updates about new restaurants, upcoming events, or businesses that are opening or closing in the area.
Digital Farming
According to the 2016 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 86 percent of recent buyers found online resources to be the most useful source of information in their home search. Make sure you are reaching these buyers by incorporating your farming efforts throughout your website. Farming online can also help you connect with relocation clients looking to move into your area.
Try to include information about events, restaurants, median sales prices, area testimonials from local residents, video tours of local attractions, and the various other things that make your area a great place to live.
Don’t forget to create a lead capture strategy when planning your digital farming strategy. Landing pages are a great way to capture online leads; instead of sending potential buyers and sellers to your website’s home page, where they can be distracted by all your great content and listings, send them to a landing page. Create a landing page for each of your major niches and for each campaign you run. For example, if you run an ad offering a free CMA, send anyone who clicks your ad to a landing page dedicated to collecting leads who want a CMA. If it’s a military buyer clicking on an ad for homes for sale 15 minutes off base, the page they go to should reflect that. Check out Chris Smith’s Landing Page Tips to Help You Generate More Leads for more landing page tips.
Social Media
In 2016, 69 percent of U.S. adults used at least one social media site, and that percentage is growing each year. Make sure your farming strategy involves active social media usage. Join local groups to find out what’s happening in your area and consider starting your own group or page to highlight local businesses and events. Posting events such as community theater shows, farmers markets, and concerts can build your reputation as the go-to person for all things local.
As the largest social media site, Facebook should be a large part of your social strategy. Grow your presence with Facebook Ads, post local content, and actively engage with commenters. If you need help, Homes.com Social Fuel can create your Facebook business page, optimize your account, post relevant regional content each week, and manage your ads to take your social strategy to the next level.
Facebook is the biggest social network, but it’s far from the only one. Twitter is a long-time favorite for those looking for quick updates or to catch up on goings-on in the area. Snapchat and Instagram are image-oriented social sites that are rising rapidly in popularity, especially with millennials (the largest group of homebuyers). Having an active Google+ account connected to your website may help your website show up higher in Google results, and LinkedIn is a great source for connecting with local businesses and service providers. Research the different social accounts to find out which ones will be the most beneficial in your farm, pick a few to actively engage in, then buy ads and stake your claim on your digital farm. Regardless of which sites you choose to use, remember to incorporate local photos in all of your marketing efforts. Nothing grabs a person’s attention like pictures from their community; seeing a location they’re familiar with will make your posts more effective.
Local Love
Get involved and show your community that you’re more than just the local real estate expert—you’re a part of the community. As Steve Jobs pointed out, “The only way to do great work is to love what you do.” Figure out what you can do to make yourself and your farm’s residents feel passionate about your area. For example, hosting a neighborhood food drive, volunteering at a retirement center, sponsoring a scout troop, helping rebuild a local park, recruiting volunteers to help neighbors repaint their homes, or organizing the largest block party your city has ever seen. Use whatever ideas you have. Events like this can turn a neighborhood into a community, help residents to see you as their real estate agent, and make your area a more desirable place to live.
Housewarming gifts are another way to show some local love. Consider your community’s amenities and give people you help buy a home in your farm something that they’ll be able to use time and time again. For example, if your farm is situated on the water, monogrammed beach towels may be a perfect gift! This is a great way to show your appreciation for their business while simultaneously giving them another reason to enjoy their community and refer you to their family and friends.
The leading driver of real estate referrals is word-of-mouth; people like to know they’re working with someone they can trust. This is why building relationships with members of your community is crucial to creating new business opportunities. Get more face-time with more people by participating in local events, showing local love, and joining various groups or associations in your area.
Step 4: Reap the Rewards
A geographic farm can help you win more sales, cut down on travel time and expenses, and generate referrals; however, that’s not all it can do. Many of the farming techniques listed above can also help your website rank better in search results. Popular search engines like Google look for websites with lots of local content, links to and from respected businesses, and keywords that will naturally appear in your social and website content. Homes.com SEO Fuel can give your website an additional boost to get even higher in search results.
Blogs, lists, directories, eBooks, videos, and other content you make while working your farm can all generate leads for years after they’re made, and their reach may surprise you. After all, videos highlighting local landmarks, businesses, attractions and amenities are much more likely to be shared than a property video. Anyone in the area may be interested in the top 10 local burger joints in your area, but significantly fewer people are looking for a $265K condo (or are willing to start a bidding war by sharing the video).
Another great way to attract potential sellers in your geographic farm and win their listings is to show them that you will market their home with Homes.com’s Featured Ads, putting their home just one click from Google and other search engines! Buyers agents, this can work for you, too!
Source: RIS Media, April 6, 2017
(http://rismedia.com/2017/04/06/create-geographic-farm-win-more-listings/)
By Meg White
OK, it’s confession time: I haven’t even been in my house for a full two years yet, and it’s already time for a decluttering session. Maybe part of it was moving into a place that didn’t need much work (oh I know, poor me!). When we moved in, my husband and I just got unpacked and settled as soon as we could without putting a lot of thought into how to organize our stuff. On the flip side, it could be the boxes we never unpacked in the move before last, which we just trucked along to our next place where storage was much more plentiful than before. But Amanda Sullivan, author of Organized Enough: The Anti-Perfectionist’s Guide to Getting—and Staying—Organized (De Capo, 2017), would probably point to her belief that pretty much everyone needs to incorporate the habit of continually decluttering into our daily lives.
“Your home is a living, breathing thing, like a garden. You must constantly weed and winnow items because, with no effort on your part, it will always be growing,” she writes, suggesting readers keep a dedicated bag or box for getting rid of unneeded items.
But what if you’re dealing with sellers who haven’t employed this trick and have years of built-up reservoirs they need to purge before putting their home on the market? Honestly, I’d recommend picking up a copy of this book for them. I was only a few minutes in when I was inspired to go home and tackle my closet.
Despite being the owner of the intimidatingly titled professional organizer/coaching business The Perfect Daughter, Sullivan is exceedingly nonjudgmental and concentrates her advice on making homes livable, rather than immaculate. Indeed, Organized Enough hangs on the principle of FLOW:
So keep this one in your back pocket for clients, but I’d also suggest real estate pros read this book on their own. The chapter on seeing one’s home as a stranger is particularly helpful for industry insiders such as yourselves. Sullivan also includes tips to motivate specific types of people (photo journaling or Pinterest boards for the visual learners, using a notebook to craft a narrative of change for the storytellers, questions to ask for those who prefer to talk it out interpersonally, etc.).
Here are three ideas from Organized Enough you can use to help your sellers who need some organizational assistance.
1 Ask sellers to take you on a tour, pointing out where they see systems as working and where they aren’t. Meanwhile, take note of places where random things are being squirreled away, spaces aren’t being used to their full potential, or where dust might be gathering. These are spots that can easily be targeted first. Sullivan also suggests looking at spaces through mirrors and photography to help bring a fresh perspective.
2 Connect clients with practical solutions for letting go. Put together a handout or resource page on your website that includes contact information, drop-off times, and details about what kinds of donations different charities in your area will accept. Some may even offer free curbside pick-up. Gather a list of links to local groups where neighbors give away or sell used goods (Nextdoor, Freecycle, Facebook parent groups, etc.). Also, find out what the rules are in your area for how to dispose of certain items such as electronics or paint.
3 Help them recognize the source of their clutter. Sullivan notes that most overstuffed homes can be traced back to fear. She goes over the different anxieties that feed into this in detail, which can be very helpful to getting to the root of the problem and closer to a lasting solution. In fact, some your clients might be highly organized people who let the ideal of perfection become the enemy of “good enough.”
Source: Realtor.com, March 14, 2017
(http://theweeklybookscan.blogs.realtor.org/2017/03/14/help-clients-get-a-clearer-view-of-clutter/)
By Lawrence Yun
Interest rates are rising, but there’s no need to panic. In the past, for each 10-basis-point increase in mortgage rates, home sales declined by around 35,000 on a national basis. Since the presidential election, mortgage interest rates have risen by 70 basis points, from an average of 3.5 percent to 4.2 percent.
Rates are rising because faster growth is expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has surpassed 20,000, a record high, and the economy is expected to benefit as the federal government cuts taxes, scraps unneeded regulations, and increases spending on infrastructure and defense. Higher growth means we can say goodbye to ultralow interest rates. Look for rates to rise to just below 5 percent over the next 18 months. That’s still low compared to historical patterns: an average of 8.9 percent in the 1970s, 12.7 percent in the 1980s, 8.1 percent in the 1990s, and 6.3 percent in the first decade of this century.
If rising interest rates are accompanied by a strengthening labor market with higher wages, the economy will be fine. At least 2 million new jobs are forecast for this year, and that is the reason we anticipate home sales will squeak out a modest gain over 2016. If mortgage underwriting standards normalize even modestly from excessively stringent conditions of the past few years, such as through reduced FHA insurance premiums or lower guarantee fees on loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, then sales could be even better.
Some analysts might say higher interest rates are not due to improved long-term economic prospects but to a steep increase in future budget deficits as tax revenue falls and spending increases. If that’s the case, the economic boost will be short-lived, harming home sales in the future.
Which will it be? The task for us is to see how federal policies affect the dynamism in the economy. Fewer regulations will likely encourage entrepreneurs to introduce new products and services. However, if the government instead emphasizes protection of existing companies, then economic growth could suffer.
NAR’s survey of commercial members fortunately indicates openings of small businesses have surpassed closings in recent months. That is a good sign, and some of those small businesses could well become the next Apple, Facebook, or Google. Let the economy work its magic.
Source: Realtor Magazine, March 2017
(http://realtormag.realtor.org/news-and-commentary/economy/article/2017/03/rising-rates-rising-sales)
By Diana Olick
Both buyers and sellers alike are feeling very good about the housing market this spring, even as home values hit new highs and mortgage rates move up.
A monthly sentiment index from Fannie Mae rose to the highest level since 2011, when the survey began, thanks to a surprising surge from millennials.
"Millennials showed especially strong increases in job confidence and income gains, a necessary precursor for increased housing demand from first-time homebuyers," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae.
Millennials are moving out of their parents' basements and forming new households at a faster rate, according to Fannie Mae research, but they are still overwhelmingly forced to rent.
"Continued slow supply growth implies continued strong price appreciation and affordability constraints facing millennials and first-time buyers in many markets," Duncan added.
The leading edge of the millennial generation is, however, entering the housing market in larger numbers today, with some venturing out of their desired urban cores to more affordable suburbs. Millennials delayed both marriage and parenthood, but that is now changing.
Nearly half of millennial buyers had at least one child, according to the 2017 Home Buyer and Seller Generational report just released by the National Association of Realtors. That is up from 45 percent last year and 43 percent two years ago. Children are the primary driver of homeownership, which is now sitting near a record low. Just 15 percent of millennial buyers chose an urban area, which is down from 17 percent last year and 21 percent two years ago.
"Millennial buyers, at 85 percent, were the most likely generation to view their home purchase as a good financial investment," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the Realtors. "These strong feelings bode well for even greater demand in the future as more millennials settle down and begin raising families."
Those numbers would likely be far stronger if home values were not being forced higher by tight supplies of homes for sale, especially starter homes. Nationally, home values rose 6.9 percent in January year over year, according to CoreLogic. That is far faster than income growth but slightly lower than the annual price appreciation in December — perhaps a sign that the jump in mortgage rates after the presidential election is cutting into prices, even slightly.
"Home prices continue to climb across the nation, and the spring homebuying season is shaping up to be one of the strongest in recent memory," said Frank Martell, CEO of CoreLogic. "A potent mix of progressive economic recovery, demographics, tight housing stocks and continued low mortgage rates are expected to support this robust market outlook for the foreseeable future."
The strongest jump in confidence came from those who say now is a good time to buy a home, but sentiment among sellers also gained, according to Fannie Mae's report.
More Americans are feeling good about employment as well, with fewer expecting to lose their jobs. More are also reporting slightly higher household income, and a growing number expect home values to rise. Those who expect mortgage rates to drop, however, remained unchanged for the third straight month.
Source: CNBC, March 7, 2017